Context is King

Got time for a hand? What would you have done? Did I play this right?

These are questions that poker experts across the world are getting from people trying to improve or tell a bad beat story. The interesting thing is that true professionals have to ask just as many questions to give a good answer:

What are the chip stacks? What are the blinds? How many hands had you played recently? How aggressive is your opponent? Have you been caught bluffing recently? Is your opponent thinking rationally or on tilt?

Change a single factor, and the "correct" action changes in a big way. A check-raise all-in could become a fold. A check-fold becomes a check-all. The pot-size bet becomes a big over-bet of the pot.

In other words, context is far more important than the actual account of the hand. It's what keeps computers from being as good at poker as they are at chess. In chess, the complete game state is known by both players all the time. But a single hand of poker taken out of context is meaningless.

Context can be measured not only in terms of a single hand or session, but in a year or career. I remember a hand that really illustrates this point. At the US Poker Championship in Atlantic City, we were down to the final 16 players when Phil Hellmuth and T.J. Cloutier got involved in a big pot. After Phil lost the pot and nearly went broke, Phil said, "Man, I've been waiting for T.J. to make that play for three years! I knew he would make a play at the pot, and I just made a great read. I've been thinking about this situation for a very long time." Despite losing the pot, Phil was right. T.J. actually misread his hand and didn't realize that he had a winner. Phil won the psychological battle, but T.J. won the pot.

I know for certain that there are certain individuals that will play very differently against me the next time we sit at the table. Maybe I knocked them out of a big tournament a few years ago. Maybe I made a great read on them. Maybe their bankroll changed dramatically since our last confrontation. The point is that context changes based on long-term circumstances.

The more you're aware of the context in a hand, the better you'll play. And the next time you email a pro and ask "How would you have played this hand?" include a three paragraph explanation of the context. The pro will be impressed and you'll be able to answer the question yourself.

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